The Balance Is Shifting: ChatGPT's Growth Slows While Gemini Accelerates
Originally published in Turkish. Read the original →
While ChatGPT maintains its global leadership, its growth rate is slowing noticeably; Google Gemini, meanwhile, is rapidly gaining momentum in metrics such as downloads, user growth and time spent in the app.
ChatGPT, which has long been the global leader of the AI market, is still at the top according to the latest data, but it is now moving along a slower growth path. Google's Gemini model, meanwhile, is gaining increasingly aggressive momentum on critical indicators such as downloads, user growth and time spent in the app.
According to the latest report published by market analysis firm Sensor Tower, about 50 percent of global mobile downloads and 55 percent of monthly active users still belong to ChatGPT. So for now, the leadership seat is ChatGPT's. But when you look at the picture in terms of growth rates, a marked slowdown stands out on the ChatGPT side.
One's Loss, Another's Gain: Gemini Gains Momentum
The same report shows that Google Gemini has started to stand out in three areas in particular:
- Download growth rate
- Growth in monthly active users
- Average time spent in the app
The momentum in these metrics indicates that Gemini could quickly bring its market share closer to ChatGPT's in the short and medium term. It is reported that the document leaked from within OpenAI, which reached the press as a "code red" memo, was also written based on these trends. Following this memo, Sam Altman is known to have instructed the team to prioritize improving the ChatGPT experience and to postpone some other projects.
User Numbers: Strong Annual Growth, a Short-Term Slowdown
Looking at the picture year over year as of November 2025, we see that both players are still showing strong growth:
- ChatGPT's global monthly active users rose 180 percent year over year.
- Gemini's annual user growth reached 170 percent.
So over the year, both models have seen significant expansion in the AI market. But when we shift the focus to the short term, especially the August–November 2025 period, the picture changes markedly:
- In the same period, ChatGPT's global active users grew by only about 6 percent, reaching a total of 810 million.
- In contrast, Google Gemini achieved growth of about 30 percent.
Behind this jump is said to be the new image generation model Nano Banana, which became popular in September. In addition, the fact that Android users in the US are increasingly using Gemini directly through the operating system gives Google a significant distribution and reach advantage.
Download Data: Leadership Continues, Rivals Grow Faster
Download statistics also point to a shifting balance:
- ChatGPT's global downloads rose 85 percent year over year as of November. However, this increase lagged behind the market's average growth rate.
In the same period, rivals reached much higher rates:
- Perplexity made the biggest jump, with a 215 percent increase.
- It was followed by Gemini, with 190 percent growth.
These figures show that ChatGPT is still the most widely used app; but that it has started to fall behind its rivals in how fast it attracts new users.
Time Spent: The Nano Banana Effect
The time users spend in an app is a critical metric for engagement. Sensor Tower data shows a break in Gemini's favor in this area too:
- Gemini users' daily usage time rose 120 percent in recent months to 11 minutes.
- The Nano Banana image generation model is again said to be at the center of this increase.
The picture on the ChatGPT side is much calmer:
- Daily usage time rose by only 6 percent in the same period.
- In fact, usage time in November was 10 percent below July's figures.
These figures show that on the Gemini side users are spending more time in the app, meaning they've started to find the experience more "sticky".
What Does It Mean? A New Act in the Competition
To sum up the picture:
- ChatGPT is still the market leader; it's at the top in terms of downloads and share of monthly active users.
- But its growth rate has slowed noticeably.
- Gemini is closing the gap quickly, having gained much sharper momentum especially in new user acquisition and time spent.
- Other players such as Perplexity also show, with their high growth rates, that the market won't remain limited to just two big brands.
For users, this competition means better features, faster innovation and more competitive products. In the coming period, both ChatGPT and Gemini can be expected to make more aggressive moves on model quality, integration strength (especially at the mobile and operating system level) and pricing.
In short: ChatGPT is still the leader of the AI market, but the side gaining momentum is now Gemini.
